HIV risk factors among adolescent and young adults: A geospatial–temporal analysis of Mozambique AIDS indicator survey data


In a developing country, it is very crucial to know where the HIV/AIDS epidemic is much more prevalent and where direct interventions are needed, especially when managing limited and scarce resources. We therefore examine the spatial distribution of HIV in Mozambique, and also assess how the epidemic evolved over a six-year period (2009–2015), with respect to potential risk factors among adolescents and young adults. We used data from the 2009 and 2015 Mozambique AIDS indicator surveys. The data were analysed jointly, by extending the work of Muleia et al. (2020) to allow for different bivariate spatial smoothing functions for both surveys. The results showed considerable spatial variation. From 2009 to 2015, the probability to be HIV positive reduced by 43.6% for young women. The results also showed dependence of the probability for HIV infection on sociodemographic factors. The findings herein will help health officials design efficient target interventions.

Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology